Where is the ‘Netbook’ headed?
A few years ago in an analyst meeting, I worked hard to convince the attendees that success in the computer industry was no longer dependent on a one-size fits all product strategy; vendors would need to develop segmented, application specific devices.
The smartphone is a great example of this - a form-factor, priced appropriately, with an accent on internet based communication, entertainment and few productivity features.
We also saw the rise of the netbook. Originally conceived to bring computing to under-developed countries, this design let the genie out of the bottle. Small form-factor notebooks (<14″) with decent battery life used to be the biggest profit drivers for PC OEMs. Priced at a significant premium to mainstream notebooks (upwards of $500 or more) they were designed for the luxury / executive crowd who would garner “oohs” and “ahhs” when they opened their briefcases on the airplane. However, the sub $400 ultra-portable PC changed all that. Few computer brands could continue to justify a $999 and up price point for a 12″ or13″ notebook.
While inexpensive, the first generation of Netbooks that debuted last holiday season were underpowered, lacking in design sophistication and hobbled by Windows XP (the only approved Operating system other than Liunx for these devices).
These $299-$399 notebooks were great for a lagging economy and a wonderful 2nd or 3rd computer for a family with young children. We’ll see another round of better netbooks in late 2009 and we are seeing the lines now blur between the “netbook” and regular notebooks.
In 2010, its likely that the “netbook” moniker will be obsolete (to the joys of Microsoft and Intel who abhor this designation). CNN writes a neat article encouraging the death of the “Netbook” label. The real reason for this is that the processor companies have developed more powerful processor and graphics chipset combinations that allow for <14″ notebooks to have 5-8 hours of battery life, sufficient processing power for the latest Operating systems. Consumers will now have more choices of size, power and features to choose from at great prices.
The consumer wins in this scenario – but do the PC companies suffer because of this? Now that the profit pool of the <14″ notebook has been reduced to the normal operating profits (or lack thereof), are we seeing business conditions continuing to deteriorate for PC manufacturers? Will this drive a round of consolidation?
